The 2008 Opener: LIVEBLOG!!!

Yes, I see that Ryan Doumit is starting tonight. Yes, Snell is on the mound. Yes, I am strongly pessimistic about this team's chances to do anything worthwhile in the 2008 season. And yes, I am freaking psyched that the Pirates and baseball are back. I will be liveblogging tonight and I'm going to try the very rare double liveblog, as I'll be blogging the whole thing here and at least part of it at FanHouse. This thread is the liveblog thread, which means it's also the first gamethread of the year. The winter's over, people. It doesn't get much better than today. To make this easy on me, we're going top down, so new stuff is on the bottom. And yes, I changed my mind on this like three times.

Pre-game: The first three innings at FanHouse will be here. I'm splitting the post up with a (gasp) Braves' fan. I'm not sure who gets the last three innings yet. It may be decided by who's ahead.

If you are unfamiliar with how things are done here, it's been noticed that Ian Snell pitches best when he's pissed off. Accordingly, I took to insulting him before his starts last year in order to draw a better performance. I tailed off after the All-Star break, but it's a new year and we're starting strong again. Today we go back to Douglas Adams:
Ian, you're a wanker, a tosspot, a very tiny piece of turd!!!

I almost had a heart attack when my MLB Extra Inning channels were all blank. Lucky for me (and you), the games are all still there. In fact, I'm watching Erik Bedard and counting down the innings until his arm explodes and shatters Seattle's hopes already.

Braves announcers, NOOOOO!!!!

The Braves have just a tomahawk behind home plate. So instead of the old, inoffensive script "A" or the script "Braves" over the tomahawk, they decided to go with nothing but the racist imagery. Classy.

And now they're showing Sid Bream. Kill me. Please.

What the hell number is John Russell? Is that thing a seven?

Top 1: McLouth leading off. That's a +1 for John Russell and Neal Huntington. He walks on five pitches. Freddy, meanwhile, takes ball 1 and chases two pitches out of the zone, then watches one in the dirt. Nate doesn't seem to notice it's in the dirt and gets picked off my McCann. Ugh. Freddy flies out to center and it's two down like nothing. Bay grounds a 2-1 pitch to third and Glavine's out of the inning without really demonstrating that he can consistently throw strikes tonight. Of course, his scouting report for the whole team probably read, "Will swing at anything."

Bottom 1: We're ten minutes into the new Pirate season and I have a headache. Right on time.

Jason Bay makes a nice running catch of a sinking Kelly Johnson line-drive. According to BravesTV, every single one of Snell's pitches thus far has been 92 mph.

Yuniel Escobar singles and moves to second on Chipper Jones' bounce out. Teixeira is up. I am terrified.

Luckily, it's over nothing as Snell gets Big Teix to pop-out to Nate in center. Scoreless innings. Oh, yeaaaaah. SNELL DOES THAT.

Top 2: ADAM LAROCHE! DOUBLE! IN APRIL! THE END IS NIGH!!!

Nady bounces out. I swear to you I won't start the Steve Pearce watch until at least the second week of the season.

Ryan Doumit is starting in the opener against a lefty. This is significant. He singles pu the middle and moves LaRoche to third. LaRoche could've scored, but holding him up was the right call.

Jose Bautista and his beard are up. Hey, Jose, here's a quarter, why don't you go down town and have a rat gnaw that thing off your face. His beard strikes out.

Jack Wilson is, of course, first pitch swinging against Glavine, who is still struggling with control. He lucks out when Kelly Johnson drops his dribbler, which should've extended the inning. Instead, it puts the Pirates up 1-0 and gives them their first lead of the season.

Snell, who I'm sure was more concerned with working up righteous anger with whoever is going to bat against him next inning, bounces into a fielder's choice to end the inning. 1-0 Pirates.

Bottom 2: Snell looks good, he gets McCann to bounce out on the first pitch, then strikes out Francouer on a pitch in the dirt, then gets Kotsay to fly out to Bay in left. Nice inning for Snell.

Top 3: McLouth pops up to left-center, while the Braves announcers compare him to Andy Van Slyke, which leads them to talk about, you guessed it, Sid Bream. This thing's going on mute in a second.

Freddy lasers a single up the middle, then Bay strikes out looking (but hey, at least he didn't wave at a pitch low and away ... Glavine actually made a nice pitch that completely fooled him).

LaRoche gets an infield single on a ball that probably should've been a groundout, but then Glavine freezes Nady with a backdoor curve. Three outs, though Glavine is laboring.

Bottom 3: Snell gets Diaz to bounce out, but walks Glavine. Bad idea jeans right there.

Kelly Johnson follows with a single. That old familiar feeling is creeping back in ...

... And there it is! Triple from Yuniel Escobar scores both runners. 2-1 Braves.

Snell then hangs a couple pitches to Chipper before getting him to ground to third, which scores Escobar. Tex then lines out to Jack at short. Snell looks like he's lost everything he had on the ball in the blink of an eye.

Top 4: Doumit flies out to right before Bautista's beard doubles over Francouer's head in right field. I keep thinking Glavine's about to settle in, but he isn't. I'm not sure if he's really struggling or the Pirates are being patient, but he's thrown a TON of pitches tonight. I mean, Jack Wilson just walked.

Why in the hell is Ian Snell wearing a double-flapped batting helmet? Man, that looks dorky. Did he lose a bet?

He manages to get the sac bunt down which is, whatever, we're not discussing bunting now.

McLouth nearly makes the bunt worth it by ripping a single to center, but Jack Wilson is thrown out by a mile at the plate by Kotsay. Dear Tony Beasley: WTF, Dude? We're killing Glavine and Jack had no chance of scoring there. Just a stupid play to take the bat out of Freddy's hands.

Top 4: Give up homers to Brian McCann (or any lefty?)? Snell does that. 4-2 Braves. McCann has three homers in 11 ABs against Snell. That's a slugging percentage of like a million.

Snell just walked Jeff Francouer. I would say that's a bad sign, but that's like saying that writing two liveblogs at the same time is insane. That is to say, obvious.

Snell nearly gets Kotsay to bounce into a DP, but he just beats the throw. Doumit then allows his first passed ball that is scored as a wild pitch of the year, which moves Kotsay to second. Russell, the ex-catcher won't like that.

Diaz grounds out to second and moves Kotsay to third, but even that ball is sharply hit. Even if Snell gets out of this inning, the fifth is going to be trouble with the top of the lineup back up.

Snell does get out of the inning by striking out Glavine, so at least that's going well. That might be his first strikeout of the night. If it is, that's telling.

Top 5: Bloop single by Freddy. We've got to get to Glavine this inning. Like, right now.

An almost double play was not what I was talking about. Luckily, Bay beats the throw to first to keep the tying run at the plate against the withering Glavine.

LaRoche isn't so lucky. Double play, inning over. Damn damn damn.

Bottom 5: Martin Prado rips a flyball to deep center, but McLouth does a nice job running it down. It's hard to take a bad route to that ball, but hey, it was a nice play by Nate.

Yunel Escobar picks up his third hit by singling up the middle. FWIW, the Braves announcer really like Tyler Yates and think he was a good pickup for us. Doumit makes another nice stop on a ball in the dirt and he's look pretty good tonight save the one ball that got away. Meanwhile, Chipper Jones loops an infield single in behind third. Bautista made a nice play to stop the ball, but had no real play anywhere.

Wow. Jack just made an awesome stab on a hard-hit ball by McCann and turned it into an inning ending double play. That inning looked like some real trouble for Snell, but Jack and Freddy completely bailed him out on that one. And write this down: Snell got McCann out.

Top 6: Glavine's out, hard throwing Chris Resop is in. Nady rips a fastball into the gap for a double.

Doumit bounces out to first, which moves Nady over to third. Bautista also has a nice at-bat and fights off a pitch that jammed the crap out of him to ground out and score Nady. Jack ends the inning with a ground out. 4-3 Braves.

Bottom 6: Oops, I was wrong. That was Tex that hit into the DP. Now McCann's up, against Snell who's still out there. I'm terrified.

Bay just made his third honest-to-goodness nice running catch out in left. That's probably the best sign that his knee is feeling better that we can ask for.

Hey, hey! Francouer chases a pitch out of the strike zone with a really nice slider. Two down for Snell. Kotsay singles, but Diaz grounds out in front of the plate to end the inning and probably the night for Snell.

Top 7: Yep, Nyjer Morgan's in to bat for Snell, which has Cox going back to the pen and gives me a bit of a breather.

Nyjer Morgan is ballsy and fast as hell. Not many people take second like he did on a hit to Francouer like that. McLouth bunts him over. That is seriously retarded. Morgan has Willie Mays Hayes speed. He could score from second on a sac fly. Taking the bat away from the top of the lineup freaking kills me.

Sanchez then bounces out to Escobar at short. If we're going to be bunting Morgan to third like that, he should've been running on that play.

Bay then hits what should've been an inning ending ground out, but the Yunel Escobar makes a bad throw giftwraps the second run of the evening for the Pirates. It's 4-4 and Moylan is done in favor of another lefty for LaRoche. Bobby Cox is not counting on this thing going extras.

Of course, it's the right move. Chris Ring comes in and strikes out Adam LaRoche. 4-4 into the bottom of the seventh.

Bottom 7: Damn, the Pens are in overtime.

Tyler Yates is on to face his old team. By old I mean, "the guys he pitched for last week."

As advertised, Yates throws some gas. He gets a ground out from a pinch hitter, a fly out to Nady in right and then walks Escobar. That brings Chipper up. That scares me.

YEAAAAAAAH! Yates K's Chipper with some serious gas. I like this guy, mainly because I hate Chipper.

Top 8: Manny Acosta in for the Braves.

It is safe to say that Xavier Nady loves Opening Day. After his heroics against Brad Lidge last year, he rips an opposite field homer off of Acosta to put the Pirates up 5-4. It's time for the obligatory, "Shall I call you Logan, Wolverine?" "NO! Weapon-X snikty-snitky-snikt!"

Doumit singles. He's seeing the ball well from the left-side tonight.

I'm falling behind here. Bautista strikes out and Acosta gets ahead of Wilson, but then walks him.

DOUGIE BOMBS! MALPHABET! DOUG MIENKLADL;FAJSDFLJALWCZ!!!

Mientkiewicz hit a sac fly, but who cares because ... NATE MCLOUTH! THREE RUN HOMER! BUCS UP EIGHT-FOUR! OHHHHHHH YEAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!

Acosta's done and Jeff Bennett's on. He was a casualty of the nightmare Rule 5 draft of 2003, I believe.

He walks Freddy, Bay hits the ball to Chipper and he throws it away for yet another Braves' error, and finally Bennett strikes out LaRoche to end the inning with the Bucs ahead 8-4.

Bottom 8: Grabow's in to pitch to Tex, McCann, et al. I would've used Marte here. Just sayin'.

Eh, I'm a moron. He strikes out Tex and get's McCann to fly out to Bay. Francouer grounds out to end the inning.

Top 9: We're just crushing the Braves pen right now. Nady and Doumit leadoff the ninth with hard hit singles, then Bautista makes a nice little bunt to score another run. If John Russell is going to be bunting this much this year, the two of us are going to have serious issues.

Hey hey it's Chris Gomez! He walks. Also, someone made an out. The lineup tells me it was probably Jack Wilson, but I wasn't paying a ton of attention. Nate McLouth strikes out looking because the umpires want to go home. Hard to blame them.

Bottom 9: Marte's in. He immediately puts Kotsay on, which is odd since Kotsay is a lefty and Marte is an old Voodoo word that means "Death to Lefties." I just made that up, can you tell?

Not a great outing for Marte, as he struck out Matt Diaz, then walked Ruben Gotay. Russell isn't screwing around and he goes and gets Marte and brings Matt Capps the strike machine in to close things out. We hope.

Capps of course walks Martin Prado. 26 walks in 163 and 2/3 innings, and suddenly he can't throw one here. He falls behind 2-0 to Escobar before Jeff Andrews heads out to the mound.

Capps walks Escobar on four pitches. One run in, Chipper Jones is up. Chipper Freaking Jones. I've got a bad feeling about this.

Jones singles in two runs. Runners on the corner, one out, 9-7 Pirates. This is bad bad bad.

Tex pops up. McCann's up with the game on the line. McCann has "Pirate killer" written all over him right now.

McCann pops up and maybe you felt relief for a minute, but someone Bay missed the ball by a mile. I mean, it wasn't even close. I have no idea what in the hell happened, but it lets Escobar and Jones score. Holy freaking crap. Francouer pops up and McLouth makes a nice diving catch to end the inning, but the damage is done. We're going to lose this game, even though the Braves probably only have Mark Wholers left in the pen. I hate the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Top 10: Freddy doubles off of Soriano. Whatev.

Bay lines out, though he did hit the ball hard. The Braves elect to walk LaRoche for Nady. This is probably a bad idea.

Nady strikes out on a juicy hanging slider. I absolutely could not care less about the rest of this game. Doumit pops-up and the inning is over.

Bottom 10: We're going to lose.

We didn't lose yet. Time for the 11th.

Top 11: The Braves are now on their last pitcher. They could have Warren Spahn out there and it wouldn't matter.

We go down 1-2-3. On the bright side, Franquellis Osoria got to bat. I say the bright side, because I strangely like to watch relief pitchers bat. On to the bottom of the 11th with the heart of the Braves order due up.

Bottom 11: Top of the order up for the Braves. I have a mammoth headache.

The Braves go down in order. WHYYY?!?!

Top 12: Top of the order up. What do you think the odds of scoring here are? None and none?

Single for McLouth. Freddy bunts him over. Bay walks. LaRoche pops up. Nady three-run jack.

Wait, what? Are you kidding me? Are the Pittsburgh Pirates actually winning this f*cking game?

Bottom 12: The Braves are up now because someone made an out. My brain doesn't work any more. Osoria is still pitching. Teixeira bounces out.

This is strange: Osoria, who can't get lefties out to save his life, gets McCann and Teixeira, then gives up a long bomb to Francouer. 12-10. Not over yet.

Kotsay doubles into the corner. The tying run is at the plate. Osoria looks gassed.

Matt Diaz singles in Kotsay. It's 12-11 now. Honestly, I wouldn't believe this game if it wasn't happening before my own eyes.

Holy crap, some fellow named Corky Miller hits a fly ball to center and Nate McLouth actually managed to catch the ball. Which means that the Pirates actually win this game. Let me repeat that: the Pirates actually win this game. 12-11.

What in the hell just happened?

The 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates

Being the fan of a bad baseball team is a very strange thing. 2008 may very well be the most important season in recent memory for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the team that will take the field night in and night out.

That Pirate team that will take the field every night will not be a pretty bad one. In 2007, the Pirates added Adam LaRoche to a 67-win team and got a 68-win team. This year, the Pirates have added even less to that 68-win team and accordingly, shouldn't expect much more of an improvement. Some may say that a portion of the roster underachieved last year, but it can just as easily be argued that a similar sized portion overachieved. That's the basic facts of baseball: those things tend to balance each other out. If you're counting on guys to reach a level beyond what's generally expected of them to win, you're not taking into consideration the guys that will drop off. Normally I'd end my season preview post with a record prediction, but in this case it's coming in the middle because record is less relevant. Let's say the Pirates will win 70 games this year. If you want a 95% confidence interval, I'd tell you 70 +/- 3. If the Pirates win less than 67 or more than 73, I'll be shocked.

Of course, on-field product isn't terribly relevant this year because the Major League team is the last thing that will benefit from an organizational overhaul. When you plant a flower, you fertilize it, water, it, give it sun, watch it grow, and the actual bloom is the culmination of your effort. Similarly, Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly have trades to make, players to scout, draft, sign, and teach, and perceptions to change before the Pirates are going to be a legitimate baseball operation. It's not an easy job and even if they do it right, it's going to be hard for the casual fan to notice it for quite some time.

So what am I watching for in 2008? On the major league level, I'm watching to see who gets traded, and for what. I fear that Huntington may have miscalculated by not trading Freddy Sanchez, Xavier Nady, and Jack Wilson this off-season. The Pirates aren't shopping Adam LaRoche, but I feel like they should be. The more I look at the comparison of Jason Bay's 2006 and 2007 swings, the more I fear that the 2007 difference is a lengthening of his swing not because he's hurt, but because he's already past his prime. Still, the players I just mentioned are important to the future of the Pirates. They are not the future of the Pirates, but how they play early on this year will help decide who it will be that makes up the team's future. It's strange to think of my favorite team like that, but that's what they are right now.

On another level, Steve Pearce and Neil Walker are certainly worth keeping an eye on. Walker has made huge strides in the last year and Pearce looks like a legitimate thumper. If they keep growing this year, anchoring those two at the corners of the infield is as good a place as any to start the foundation of an honest-to-goodness major league ballclub. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny are 26 and 25, respectively. If Huntington can restock the cupboard without dealing them (something that will be incredibly difficult to do, in all honesty), there aren't many teams that can match them for the top of a young rotation. Beyond them, Altoona isn't worth watching right now and most of the prospects we have in any level of A-ball are pitchers. Maybe there will be a Steve Pearce this year that takes the organization by storm, but those things are always hard to figure out.

I'm sorry if you came to this site today looking for me to give you hope in the 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates. Bob Dylan once said that "hope's just a word that maybe you said and maybe you heard on some windy corner 'round a wide angle curve." If you've managed to dig your way through the internet and to my site, I'd like to think that you're looking for something a little more concrete and objective than that. I don't cheer for the Pittsburgh Pirates because I think they're going to win this year or anytime soon and I don't write this site for any other reason beyond the fact that I think that I can give objective analysis about the team while remaining a fan of them at the same time.

So why watch a team that both you and I know is going to lose this season? I cheer for the Pirates because it's what I've done my entire life. That's not to say I do it because it's a routine, but because staying faithful to the memories of watching games with my dad when I could barely walk, seeing Andy Van Slyke hit a home run in my first trip to Three Rivers, watching the 1991 highlight film and The Battling Bucs: The First 100 Years of the Pittsburgh Pirates until the tapes wore out, trying my hardest to be like Jason Kendall when I was in Little League, watching Rob Mackowiak share a special moment in his life with 30,000 people, and a million other little things that have happened since I simultaneously discovered baseball and the Pirates some 18 years ago is something that's important to me. I don't think of the Pirates as being personified in the owners or players that make up the club, but instead as a concept that represents Pittsburgh and baseball. Certainly, the people involved with this team have done nothing in the recent past to deserve my loyalty, but they're not the ones I'm rooting for.

The long and winding road

Let's start this one at the beginning. Since it's the day before the season starts, the PG is launching all kinds of articles off like crazy about the baseball season. The one that you HAVE to read is Dejan's piece about the new management team's blueprint. It's articles like this one that make you appreciate just what a good beat writer he is.

Anyways, the whole thing starts out based on the premise that the Pirates are contending in late May (I have NO idea where I've heard something like that before). In that unlikely scenario, how does it effect the blueprint that Coonelly and Huntington have laid down for the future of this club? That question just provides the framework for DK to dig into what these guys are really trying to accomplish and how they're going about doing it. There are two key quotes in this article along those lines. One of them isn't even from someone in the Pirates' organization:

"We don't want to sit in the middle, going in neither direction," Beane said at the time.

Billy Beane is, with that quote, describing why he traded his best pitcher and best hitter this off-season for lots of prospects. I've said similar things in the past: trying to rebuild while trying to stay respectable at the major league level is almost an impossible thing to do. That brings us to quote #2:

"We're not going to have the system be as deep as we need it to be as quickly as we want. We know that," Coonelly said. "If we moved Snell or Gorzelanny or Capps, the players people wanted in the types of deals we wanted to make, we could accelerate that process. That's a fact. And that would not be the most illogical step for this team to take."

But ...

"We decided against it because, one, it is not financially necessary to do so. Two, we think we can infuse talent to the group we have even as we continually look for right trades that can bring prospects. Three, we want to give this team a chance to contend, to win. We think these players and our fans deserve it."

Now, there are a ton of reasons for the Pirates to not have moved Gorzelanny, Snell, or Capps this off-season. As pointed out by Dejan in the article, in a system mostly devoid of upper level pitching prospects the Pirates would be trying to acquire guys in the very mold of the guys they were trading. Snell and Gorzo have certainly not maximized their trade value at this early point in their careers and trading them wouldn't bring a king's ransom to the Pirates the way that Haren did for Beane. Since they'll be under contract for the forseeable future in Pittsburgh, it's not even ludicrous to suggest that they could form with Pearce, McCutchen, and Walker as the core of a respectable Pirate team somewhere down the road if Huntington can make good trades with guys like Bay and LaRoche. But not trading them because they're trying to infuse the group they have now with talent? That makes me nervous.

There are a ton of great things said by and about Coonelly and Huntington and even Bob Nutting in this article. They make it very clear that 82 wins is not a goal or a destination, but a necessary hurdle on the way to contending. I like that. It seems pretty obvious to me that they all know they have their work cut out for them if they're ever going to be turn the Pirates into something respectable. I think they've handled the Bay situation as well as possible with the cards dealt to them last year. It's clear that Coonelly and Huntington are very bright guys and that Nutting is taking this team a lot more personally right now than we could've ever expected. Still, I get the feeling that they might not know what they've gotten themselves into.

That's not to imply that I know how to turn a moribund baseball franchise around better than these guys do. That's simply me talking from the experience of having watched this team struggle for as long as I can remember. I've paid more attention to the Pirates than any sane person should for in the three years I've written this blog, I've read countless books about baseball, I've studied how other teams have managed to turn themselves around and how we might copy them. That doesn't make me an expert by any means. But I can tell you that Doug Melvin took over the Brewers in sad shape after the 2002 season, he didn't have a winning team until 2007 and he won't make the playoffs until 2008 at the earliest. Mark Shapiro took over the Indians the year before Melvin took over the Brewers and they didn't make the playoffs until last year. Dave Dombrowski took four seasons until the Tigers broke through, including one of the worst years in baseball history. Dan O'Dowd was in Colorado for eight years before stumbling into success. Some guys, like Josh Byrnes in Arizona, have had quicker turnarounds, but they were also dealt better hands. When it comes to hands being dealt, Huntington and Coonelly have pulled in the worst one possible. The road from where the Pirates are now to success is not a short one, and if Coonelly and Huntington think that there's a chance that it might be, they're going to be in for a very rude surprise.

Paul Maholm's back STILL hurts

You know what's mildly concerning to me? When a pitcher misses a spring training start with the same injury that caused him to pitch poorly at the end of the previous season. I'm talking, of course, about Paul Maholm being scratched from his start today with a stiff lower back.

Maholm says it's not serious and Neal Huntington says he would make his start if it was the regular season, but Maholm's back bothered him last September and it's still bothering him. I consider that to be a pretty ominous sign for a team that has no reasonable replacement for him in the entire organization. If someone goes on the DL, the likely replacements are John Van Benschoten, Bryan Bullington, Phil Dumatrait, or Ty Taubenheim. That's terrifying.

PG: Burnett to be the final cut

According to the Post-Gazette, it looks like Sean Burnett is going to be the Pirates' final cut this spring in favor of Evan Meek or Phil Dumatrait, leaving the pen to be Meek, Dumatrait, Grabow, Osoria, Yates, Marte, and Capps. The decision was made because Burnett can go to the minors and Dumatrait and Meek can't, due to being either out of options or a rule 5 pick. For that reason, it really is the right move. Burnett and Dumatrait are similar pitchers and since Meek has the highest upside of the three, he's certainly worth taking a longer look at. When it comes down to making the decision, you have to factor in that Burnett can be called up in a month if someone gets hurt or traded and Dumatrait simply can't.

That said, I still think it sucks that Burnett's getting the shaft here. You really can't ask for a guy to do more to try and make the team than Burnett has this year between taking on a new role and pitching lights out all spring. That means that for the second year in a row he's going to the minors after a good performance in camp. Last year it was justified because there was simply no reason to keep Tom Gorzelanny in the minors. This year it's still justified, but it's got to be a lot harder for Burnett to swallow. Everyone's been the 26th man on a 25 person team more than once in their life, but to have to go to AAA and watch a guy that's only a year younger than and never pitched above AA and a guy picked in the same draft who you know isn't better than you make the team instead, well, that's gotta sting. Mostly, people will shrug if off because at the age of 25, Burnett's already been cast for a career role as a journeyman lefty, but it doesn't make it sting less for him.

I suppose the worst part is that it all goes down while he's celebrating the birth of his first kid, who he partially named after Jeff Andrews. Congrats on that, Sean, and hopefully you'll get your shot this year.

This and that

There's a ton of stuff I've been meaning to share, so let's get it all out of the way. Actually, the list itself isn't that big, I just have a lot of things to say about a couple of then.

This Jose Canseco/A-Rod saga is amazing. Not for the fact that A-Rod used steroids, but just for the giant trainwreck it's become. If you haven't been following, Deadspin has the hilariously awful excerpt from his book dealing with A-Rod, we laughed about it a lot at FanHouse, and then Pat Jordan showed up on Deadspin to tell everyone what a f*&$ing scumbag Canseco is. I've been kind of captivated by this whole thing, but completely for the wrong reasons. Mostly, I think I'm just amazed that we live in a world where something like Jose Canseco is actually allowed to happen.

A site called "Baseball Intellect" has an interesting look at Jason Bay's 2006 swing compared to his 2007 swing. I am no hitting coach, but it look to me like his 2006 swing is a lot shorter than his 2007 swing. Honestly, I used to marvel at Bay's swing. In 2005 and 2006, his swing was just this short, effortless flick that sent the ball rocketing across the park. I really think that the ease of his swing is why people get so frustrated with him sometimes. Even when he's in the zone, it never looks like he's trying, even when he really is. Man, I hope he fixes himself this year. (Found that one at BBTF)

As per an earlier conversation in the comments: everyone gets free Dr. Pepper if Axl Rose releases Chinese Democracy this year. That, my friends, is what we call "win, win."

DK's season preview is up at the PG. If I have time, I may expound upon this later. Also, check the story about Kuwata's retirement. He basically says that he shouldn't be taking the spot of a young reliever in the system. Something about the 40-year old guy making a run at his life-long dream of pitching in the majors really wore off on me and I think I'll miss him, though I know I won't miss his pitching.

Lots of people getting injured lately; Chris Capuano, my boy John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar (kind of, actually his injury just got worse), and many more. Somehow we've avoided serious injury to anyone besides Juan Perez. I feel the other shoe coming ...

Here's how it would happen: July 2008

I honestly think the Pirates have no chance to contend or even finish .500 this year, but the truth is that there must be some sequence of events, no matter how improbable, that can take place that would bring home an NL Central pennant for the Bucs in 2008. It's probably just because I've watched too much LOST lately, but I'm going to write a series of flash-forwards dealing with the one alternate dimension in a million in which the Pirates win the NL Central in 2008. Someone hit the gas on the infinite improbability drive ...

Holy cow, I wanted to be done with these by the opener. Time to hit the gas. On July 1st, at the halfway point of the season, the Pirates are 41-40. If you've missed the earlier editions and are just starting now, check out April, May, and June.

July 6th- Prince Fielder hits three homers off of Matt Morris, the third of which lands in the Allegheny may have punched a hole in the far wall of Miller Park's roof. The Brewers beat the Pirates 9-2, dropping the Bucs (who have now lost 8 of 9) to 42-44 and pulling themselves one game ahead of the Cubs and six games ahead of the Pirates.
WHYGAVS: You know, we all kind of felt like this ride would end eventually. I mean, in reality the NL Central has been one of the best divisions in the NL this year and I don't know anyone that thinks the Pirates are realy one of the best teams in the NL. If it feels to you like I'm writing a eulogy, well, it feels that way to me too. I think when this season ends, we're going to be looking back on this late June/early July stretch as the one that sunk the Pirates.

July 9th- The Pirates crush the Astros 11-1 to finish a three-game sweep and get back above .500 at 45-44.
WHYGAVS: I honestly never thought we'd see .500 again after Sunday and here we are back above the mark. This team is maddening, frustrating, and inconsistent. At least that's an upgrade over "awful."

July 13th- The Pirates sneak out a 3-1 win over the Cards to sweep their 6-game homestand and go into the break at 48-44, tied with the sliding Cubs and 3 games behind the division leading Brewers.
WHYGAVS: We're four games above .500 at the All-Star Break. I feel like that should be a question, but it's actually a statement. It is the honest, hand-to-God truth. The Pittsburgh Pirates are four games above .500 at the All-Star Break. And in New York on Tuesday, there's going to be three Pirates on the NL side. Three! This is un-freaking-precedented. Jason Bay, Ian Snell, and Tom Gorzelanny are all suiting up for the NL, and Adam LaRoche would be there if first base in the NL didn't have Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Mark Teixeira all at the same position. This has literally blown my mind.

July 17th- The Pirates elect to go with Paul Maholm in Coors' Field to kick off the second half of the season, since both Snell and Gorzo pitched in the All-Star game. The result is an insane 17-15, 12 inning win for the Buccos that sees homers from Bay (21), McLouth (11), Doumit 2 (12), and Pearce (5).
WHYGAVS: Holy freaking crap. Was that a baseball game? I mean, Maholm got shelled, Burnett came in and got shelled, Osoria got shelled, Marte pitched well, then Capps came out to HOLD THE LEAD that we somehow had and got REALLY shelled, then Evan Meek and Tyler Yates shut the highest scoring team in the NL down for three full extra innings, which was long enough for Ryan Doumit to launch his second homer of the night into air thinner than his hamstrings. What is happening?

July 23rd- The Pirates beat the Astros 2-1 in Minute Maid Park behind a solid outing by Gorzy, who picks up his 12th win. The win is their 12th in 13 games, which brings them to 54-45, tied with the Brewers atop the NL Central.
WHYGAVS: Now, I realize that I am a relatively young blogger that from time to time is prone to hyper-hyperbole (is that possible?) and that my memory of the early 90s is pretty hazy, but I can't ever remember a Pirate team that's been this hot. Not matter what they do, they win. Tonight the bats, which had been so hot, failed to show up. That didn't matter because Gorzo baffled the Astros' hitters all night and Nyjer Morgan's pinch-hit, RBI single/stolen base/score from second on a ball hit right at Hunter Pence was enough offense for the whole team. And yes, I just checked and the Pirates are tied for first on July 23rd and I'm fairly certain that I'm awake and if you're reading this, you're probably awake, too.

July 31st- For the first time in recent history, I emerge from the trade deadline without wanting to gouge my eyes out. Xavier Nady is shipped off for prospects and ... that's it. They try to shop around for a fifth starter, but none are logical and hey, Matt Morris is 6-8 with a 4.90 ERA. In the game of the evening, the Bucs beat the Rockies 4-3 on a walk-off home run by Nate McLouth off of ... you guessed it ... Kip Wells*. The win brings the Pirates to 4-3 on their month-closing homestand and pulls their record up to 59-48, still tied with the Brewers.
WHYGAVS: I have no idea how or why this keeps happening, but it does. I'm not going to lie, if this team is just pulling at our heartstrings right now (and I really think they probably are), I'm going to be incredibly pissed if they lost 25 of 30 games or some similar ridiculousness in August. I'm serious.

*If Nate McLouth hits a walk-off home run off of Kip Wells at any point this year in real life, azibuck gets to write the recap.

Kuwata to retire

The PG is reporting that Masumi Kuwata told the Pirates yesterday that since it's clear he won't be making the team this year, he's going to retire and head back to Japan. Neal Huntington apparently offered him a chance to pitch one final time today and take a coaching job with the club, but Kuwata declined both offers. He clearly didn't have much left in the tank, but it's hard not to respect a guy that knows when that's the case. He came over here to try and pitch in the majors, got his shot and couldn't hack it, and knew it was time to hang the spikes up. Honestly, it was kind of fun having him on the team in New York last year and hey, it's not like he was the worst reliever on the team. Happy trails, Masumi.

Roster moves, roster moves, ROSTER MOVES!!!

The 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates as they will appear in Atlanta on March 31st are quickly taking shape. The PG details a bunch of moves made today that go a long ways towards clearing things up. The most interesting ones are in the bullpen, where the BK Kim experiment ends before it can even start (if you recall the WHYGAVS Poll on this subject, I think this qualifies as "abject failure," though he didn't ruin any real games for us), Jaret Wright is asked to clean out his locker, Juan Perez and his gimpy elbow are sent packing, and Neal Huntington makes his second trade by acquiring Tyler Yates from the Braves for Todd Redmond.

That trade is certainly an interesting move, and it indicates that Huntington is as concerned about the bullpen as I am. Yates isn't a bad reliever, but I wouldn't qualify him as a good one, either. He does a good job against righties and will probably ably fill the Salomon Torres role that was vacated when Sully was traded to Milwaukee this winter, mostly because he's only 30 and Torres is 36. The question, of course, is whether or not he's worth Todd Redmond. Redmond isn't a particularly great prospect, given that he's only made 3 appearances in AA and he's going to be 23 this year, but he was decent in Lynchburg last year. My guess is that he's simply not the type of prospect that Huntington likes: he's not a power arm (107 strikeouts in 160 innings) and he doesn't have a terribly high ceiling. If you equate Yates to Torres, the two trades net value is Marino Salas and Kevin Roberts for Todd Redmond. I'd rather have the starter than the two relievers, but it's not like we're talking high grade prospects or even high ceilings here. If we add Yates to Capps, Grabow, and Marte as bullpen locks, that leaves three bullpen spots, which will likely be decided among Osoria, Meek, Burnett, and Dumatrait.

In the non-pitching moves of the day, Josh Wilson was DFA'd in favor of Doug Mientkiewicz, which means that Mientkiewicz has a roster spot all but locked up, which I'm fine with. Unless someone gets hurt and he starts over Steve Pearce. Then I will be upset.

Here's how it would happen: June 2008

I honestly think the Pirates have no chance to contend or even finish .500 this year, but the truth is that there must be some sequence of events, no matter how improbable, that can take place that would bring home an NL Central pennant for the Bucs in 2008. It's probably just because I've watched too much LOST lately, but I'm going to write a series of flash-forwards dealing with the one alternate dimension in a million in which the Pirates win the NL Central in 2008. Someone hit the gas on the infinite improbability drive ...

After a scorching 17-10 May (which followed a 13-14 April), the Pirates find themselves at 30-24, a mere game behind the first place Cubs. On to June ...

June 6th- Brandon Webb no-hits the Pirates, giving them their second loss in a row and dropping them to 33-27 and giving the D'Backs a scorching 39-21 record.
WHYGAVS: You know, it was bound to happen. The Pirates have lost an unfathomable number of games in the past 15 seasons, mostly with embarrassingly bad offense. I have no idea how today is the only no-hitter that's been thrown at us since the Bonds' days. Figures it would come in the first season we might have a shot at a winning record.

June 12th- After being swept by the Diamondbacks and losing the first two games against Washington to give them six losses in a row, Ian Snell spins a 3-hit, 11 strikeout masterpiece against the Nationals to end the losing streak. During the loss, Xavier Nady suffers a high ankle sprain after an awkward slide into second and Steve Pearce is called up to start in right field.
WHYGAVS: Losing streak? SNELL! DOESN'T! DO! THAT! That, right there, is what you give a contract extension for. I may go heavy on the stats from time to time, but there is no way I can quantify just how huge this performance was today. We're 34-31 right now and whether we can keep that up, I don't know. If we do, part if it will have something to do with Ian Snell's performance today.

June 14th- The Pirates beat the Orioles 10-2 while I am in attendance at Camden Yards. They move to 35-32.
WHYGAVS: **Long rambling post about how awesome Camden Yards is, even if it doesn't come close to comparing to PNC Park.**

June 22nd- The Pirates lose to the Blue Jays 5-2 at PNC Park, dropping to 38-36.
WHYGAVS: It's happening again. The Pirates start playing American League teams, and start losing. They're 4-5 against the AL this year, but two of those wins are against the Orioles so they don't count and one of the losses is to them, so it counts double. That makes them 2-7 against the AL, by the unofficial tally. Honestly, these two home series against the Yankees and the second place Rays (!) may be the two most important series for the Pirates since 1997. If they don't manage to go at least 4-2 against these teams, I think the season might be headed into the tank. Lucky me, I get to be home for all of them!

June 26th- In the bottom of the 11th inning, Steve Pearce hits his third homer since his call-up, a walkoff 2-run shot off of Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the 11th to bring the Pirates back from a 6-5 deficit and sweep the Yankees.
WHYGAVS: (post dated 1:17 AM, as I'm in Western PA, will be at this game, and will have to make the hour drive home before I can write up the marathon). STEVE PEARCE!!!! Holy cow, I haven't been to a game like that at PNC since the Mackowiak double header. Standing room only crowd, the Pirates in competition after the first week in April, and a walkoff homer to lead the Pirates to victory. Electric, amazing, I dunno. I'm out of adjectives. Somehow, the Pirates are 41-36 as we approach the end of June. I know it's impossible, improbably, unlikely, and possibly a harbinger of doom, but if you can't believe in this team, you can't believe in anything.

June 29th- The Pirates lose to Tampa 2-0 on a gem from EricScott Kazmir. I file my first post since Friday, shortly before WHYGAVS Night (which is June 27th, remember? REMEMBER?!?).
WHYGAVS: My head hurts. WHYGAVS night, wake up, wedding, reception, open bar, giant barn, open field, who knows what really happened. All I know is the Pirates looked as bad today waving at Kazmir as I feel and that loss makes three in a row, dropping the Bucs to 41-39 and a full four games behind the Cubs and Brewers. I am feeling less than optimistic about a lot of things right now. I'm going to bed.

June 30th- The Pirates lose to the Reds 2-1, though Johnny Cueto throws 137 pitches in the complete game victory, prompting me to take my anger at the four-game losing streak out on Dusty Baker over at FanHouse.
WHYGAVS: You know, if you would've told me in March that this team would be 41-40 at the halfway point in this season, I would've been beyond ecstatic. I think overjoyed would've probably been the world I would've used. Today, I just feel kind of hollow about this loss. Maybe it's being back at work after almost a week off, maybe it's the hangover (it's still there), who knows. But I feel something decidedly less than joy at the moment. If we can just limp into the All-Star break, maybe we can pull things back together, but I'm getting less and less hopeful of that by the moment. Stupid interleague play always ruining everything.

Nate McLouth will start in centerfield

To a casual observer, the Pirates' naming Nate McLouth as the starting center fielder today probably seemed like something of a foregone conclusion. Maybe it was, but the Pirates were publicly insisting otherwise as recently as about a week ago, claiming that Morgan and McLouth were "neck and neck." We've rehashed the pros and cons of the two a million times here and it generally tends to get ugly, for whatever reason, so I'll just say that I'm happy for McLouth to get his shot at the revolving door position that is center field for the Pirates. He certainly brings a little more patience and a little more power to the position that's generally been manned by the Jermaine Allensworth clones since 1996 (save stints by Brian Giles, Kenny Lofton, and Jason Bay in center) and it's time to try something a little different.

Beyond that, I'm really happy to see them keep Morgan with the big club. I don't see what AAA has to offer him since he's almost 28 and he'll certainly be a better bench player on the big club than Kevin Thompson would be. If he's seeing regular time in center with McLouth seeing regular time in left or right, I won't be pleased, but we'll tackle that when it comes to it.

There's only a few roster slots left to fill at this point. There's the bullpen, which will probably give Huntington nightmares all year anyways, and a decision between Chris Gomez, Josh Wilson, and Doug Mientkiewicz, a group from which the Pirates will probably take two players (unless my math is bad).

Cuts

Let's see here. The Bucs made four more cuts today, sending Kevin Thompson, Elmer Dessens, Casey Fossum, and Jonah Bayliss by the wayside. Dessens, Fossum, and Bayliss were about the bottom of the barrel for bullpen candidates, so we don't really learn a lot by them getting cut. Thompson getting cut means Nyjer Morgan is probably going to make the roster, even if he doesn't start because every team needs two guys that can man center field. Bayliss was also DFA'd to make room for Luis Rivas on the 40-man roster, which just about makes it a slam dunk that he's going to be the starting second baseman, as I don't think Freddy's going to be ready to play the field by next Monday, no matter what James Andrews says.

We are going to give up a lot of runs this year

I admire Paul Meyer DK for doing his best to make it sound like Matt Morris wasn't totally awful in giving up eight runs in his 5 and 2/3 innings yesterday. Still, a bunt single, a misplayed grounder, and a wind-aided homer only accounts for three of eight runs. Russell was enthused by how Morris threw, so I guess it's wrong of me to dismiss some spring results and harp on others, but dammit, I'm a blogger!

The scarier thing to me is the bullpen this year. So we've got Capps closing, which is solid. We've got Marte setting up, which should go OK even if pitting him against righties regularly is kind of scary. We've got Grabow in there which is, well, it is what it is. Then we've got (presumably) four slots to be filled by Phil Dumatrait, Sean Burnett, Franquellis Osoria, Evan Meek, and Byung-Hyun Kim. Beyond them, we could go to Masumi Kuwata, Hector Carrasco, Jaret Wright, or Casey Fossum. Except for the two guys at the back end (I'm talking Capps and Marte, Grabow spends half the year being called Grablow for a reason), this bullpen could potentially be the stuff nightmares is made of.

Freddy's shoulder is OK

For the first time in recent history, James Andrews gave the Pirates good news by confirming the training staff's diagnosis that Freddy Sanchez's shoulder problem is just inflammation around the rotator cuff, meaning that he'll probably be ready for Opening Day. At least that's what the article says, but the statement that Freddy might stay behind in Bradenton to take extra BP kind of says differently. But we should at least be happy he's not badly hurt.

In completely unrelated news, the Pirates' website has been completely redesigned and currently features NO PLAYERS on the header. How will we ever be able to confirm swirling rumors about one of a select few players on the team? Or is Neal Huntington just about to trade everyone?

Happy Easter

Another awesome picture from Peter Diana at the PG shows the LaRoches spending some quality time together on Easter weekend. There's just a bit of familial resemblance there.

This sounds bad...

Lets' juxtapose some statements from today's paper together. First there's this:

There seems at least the possibility that Freddy Sanchez will not be ready to play when the Pirates open the season March 31 in Atlanta.

OK... then this:

"I was hoping this day would be easier," he said. "Even if it felt just a little better, it would be a different story. It just doesn't feel right. It's frustrating. I'm very concerned now."

Might be out for opening day? Might?!? Because next is this:

"Obviously I'm getting concerned. I'm to the point where I just want this thing to go away. It's not cooperating."

That sounds like he's willing to do whatever it takes to make his shoulder better. Including more surgery? Because we also have this:

Pirate second baseman Freddy Sanchez, bothered by pain in his right shoulder, will be examined by Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham, Ala., Monday. Sanchez will fly to Birmingham tomorrow and return to Bradenton Tuesday.

I don't like how this sounds at all. Is everyone ready for the Luis Rivas era?

Burnett in the pen

One of the more interesting storylines to me this spring has been Sean Burnett's success as a short reliever. There is certainly ample evidence that guys that have had their arms ravaged by injury really benefit from a move out of the rotation and into the 'pen, as the short workload allows them to focus on one inning and get out of the game, rather than try and preserve their arm over the course of a start.

That being said, I'm not totally sold on Burnett out of the pen. Today's the longest story we've gotten on him this spring and there's no real details about how his pitches look. He looked awesome last spring in mostly short work, then flamed out in the rotation in AAA and if my memory serves, could only muster around 85 on his fastball. In general, the guys that really have success in a switch like this are power pitchers; Gagne, Smoltz, etc. and they generally were at least decent starters at some point in their career and I don't know if Burnett's short pre-injury minor league career and five game stretch in 2004 is enough to pull that judgment from.

To be honest, I don't know why I'm so intrigued by Burnett. I guess it's probably just because I was in attendance for his first career win and for whatever reason, that memory really sticks out. In the time I went to Duquesne, I probably went to somewhere in the neighborhood of 80-100 Pirates games (seriously). When I moved down to Chapel Hill, I found a stash of my tickets (which I keep because I'm a packrat) and generally found myself leafing through them going, "I don't remember any of these games). Probably 10 or maybe 20 of them stand out in my mind, but that's it. For some reason, Sean Burnett beating the Cardinals in late June of 2004 is one of them. It's probably because in the car on the way down my dad and I laughed at how hopeless it seemed for the Pirates to be sending a winless rookie out against the juggernaut Cards, who own PNC Park, and I cracked, "Come on, we're gonna have to hold on to these ticket stumps for Sean Burnett's first career win when he gets into the Hall of Fame." He did win that night, with six scoreless innings, and he won his four starts after that. And then he pitched poorly for a few starts, his elbow exploded, and four years later I'm just hoping he doesn't make a terrible reliever. Such is life as a Pirate fan, I suppose.

The definition of poor logic

I'm hoping that the problem here is Paul Meyer mis-interpreting things but I don't get that impression. His article today starts like this:
Pirates management and staff often have cited this statistic this spring: 11-59.

That was the Pirates' record last season when they scored three or fewer runs in a game.

[...]

Last season, one more run meant a great deal. The Pirates were 57-35 when they scored four runs or more in a game.

Perhaps Sunday evening, as general manager Neal Huntington, manager John Russell and assorted coaches and minor-league staff met to decide on Monday's roster cuts, the group hit on an idea that could produce that much-needed extra run.

Nate McLouth and Nyjer Morgan, who all spring have competed for the starting center field job, could make the team's 25-man opening day roster and, on occasions, play in the same game.

The implication here is that playing Nate McLouth and Nyjer Morgan together will help the Pirates score more runs. Right, playing two center fielders and keeping Nady, Bay, or Doumit on the bench is going to be the cure to what ails the Pirates. Ugh.

Spring stats and stuff

As you've probably noticed, I don't spend a ton of time on numbers from spring training unless they're something that really jumps out at me (good or bad). It's mostly just because you can't tell much from them. Remember last spring when Sean Burnett was practically unhittable and Tom Gorzelanny was awful and people were clamoring for Burnett to start the year in Pittsburgh? Yeah, that actually happened. Still, right around this time, things start to jump out at me. So here's what I've recently noticed that I think is worthwhile:

• Holy crap, Freddy Sanchez is just taking the field tonight? I've said it before, but his health really does concern me. He's only played one year since he's come to Pittsburgh in which injuries haven't been any concern at all. He is hitting well as DH this spring, so I suppose this is nothing to panic over ... yet.
• If the calendar never moved past March 30th, Sean Burnett might have finally righted his career. He was awesome in camp last year and he's been awesome again this year, with a 1.13 ERA and 6 strikeouts in 6 innings. I'm not really convinced he should make the 'pen because I don't know who he's been striking out and his AAA numbers have been awful the past two years, but it's nice to know that moving to the pen might not be completely fruitless. I again want to re-iterate that this is the move to make with Van Benschoten, who I think has a little more life in his arm that Burnett and might actually make a good reliever instead of just a passable one.
  
• I seriously hope that Zach Duke can get things turned around this year and even though his past couple starts have been pretty promising, 4 strikeouts in 14 innings is not going a long way towards convincing me. Even Kuwata's got 3 K's in 5 innings this spring.
• If you guys think I've been worked up over the Steve Pearce thing, just wait and see what happens if Nyjer Morgan's the Opening Day centerfielder. McLouth was slugging .636 BEFORE he homered tonight. Making Morgan the starter would more or less invalidate every statement made before the season about this being a "competition" because McLouth is running laps around Morgan right now.
  

That's all I got for now.

Demoting Steve Pearce was dangerous and here's why

It is clear to me from the comments that are being left that I've done a very poor job of illustrating why I think demoting Steve Pearce is a very bad idea for the Pirates. It's probably my own fault because school has been rather hectic lately and I have less and less time to sit down and properly write out posts on these things. Regardless, let's break things down a little better here.

The first and most important point that I think people are missing is this one: I don't think Steve Pearce is some kind of slam dunk 30 homer breakout star for the Pirates this year. I don't know that he'd be that much better than Xavier Nady over the course of 2008. I've seen far too many Pirate prospects get to the majors and fizzle to put too much hope on Pearce becoming more than an average first baseman/corner outfielder. At the same time, I realize that Xavier Nady is an average outfielder. When this whole debate started, I purposely overstated his flaws to compensate for the people that were blindly singing his praises. Perhaps I've kept doing that for too long and if that's the case, I apologize for being lazy. But yes, I fully realize the possibility that Nady might be a better outfielder than Pearce this year and if I had to put odds on it, I'd say they it was 50/50 as to who would put better numbers up this year.

How Pearce is going to hit this year is not the point. Over the winter we spent an endless amount of time in a circuitous conversation over whether or not Neal Huntington was doing the right thing by holding on to most of his chips and hoping their value went up during the season. Most of this conversation centered on Jason Bay, who Huntington got good, but not great, offers for. Huntington decided to hold on to Bay and it was the right move. For the three years prior to 2007, Bay was probably one of the ten most productive outfielders in the National League and his year in 2005. His bad numbers last year were probably at least influenced by his bad knee and there's no reason to trade him now when there's a good chance he'll raise his value during the season. The same situation does not exist with Xavier Nady. Xavier Nady is Xavier Nady and everyone in baseball not named Dave Littlefield knows it. He's an injury-prone fourth outfielder or a platoon guy or a fill-in for any contender. He could hit 12 home runs in April or spend the entire month on the bench and that won't change much because there's already too much of a record to indicate that it will.

That brings us to Pearce. Just about every metric and projection (MLEs, PECOTA, ZiPS, Bill James, the Hardball Times) indicates that Pearce is ready to play in the majors right not at a level similar to Nady. It doesn't mean that he will, but it does mean that time spent in AAA is wasting time that could be spent figuring out his true value to this franchise. If he hits in AAA, people will keep clamoring for his call-up. If he doesn't, people will say that he's bumping his head on the ceiling and deserves called up anyways. What concerns me the most is something that I've brought up several times: his age. He's 25 years old, which means that it's time for him to get his chance. Twenty-six is too old to be unsure about a player and if Pearce stays in AAA mid-season or later, that's the situation we're going to be in. I know no one's saying Pearce is going to be in Indianapolis all year, but it's certainly a possibility.

If Pearce does go to AAA and rake, all that does is force Huntington's hand even more when it comes to Nady. Other GMs knowing that Pearce is banging down the door is every bit as bad for Huntington's bargaining position as keeping Nady on the bench in favor of Pearce is. Maybe Huntington isn't waiting for a Nady trade. Maybe he's waiting for a Bay trade to slide Pearce in. That's equally unacceptable to me. One of the hallmarks of mismanagement in Pittsburgh prior to Huntington's arrival was constantly choosing proven mediocrity over potential ability and choosing to play Nady over Pearce is the same song again.

What worries me is that Huntington is making the mistake of overvaluing his players and undervaluing his minor league talent. We know he's got a buyer for Nady right now in the Mets and the offer probably isn't great, but there's just not much that can happen over the next few months that's going to change that. Give the fact that players like Nady are fairly common in the league, there's a good chance that that buyer won't be there in a month or two. Maybe Huntington will get lucky and Alfonso Soriano will blow his knee out and Dave Littlefield will sing the praises of Nady to Jim Hendry and we'll end up with an honest-to-goodness prospect for Nady, but then maybe ESPN will offer me a million dollars to by WHYGAVS tomorrow. That doesn't mean I'm dropping out of grad school and counting on it.

To put things simply, the next Pittsburgh Pirate team that plays meaningful baseball after the All-Star break almost certainly won't have Xavier Nady on it, but it might have Steve Pearce. Because of that, there's no reason to play Nady over Pearce, whether there's a buyer for Nady or not.

What Neal Huntington really means

Sometimes I can't help but read an article full of quotes from someone and assume that there's just a little more to what they said. Take today's story about the most recent cuts, chock full of Neal Huntington quotes. His quotes are below, well, except for the bold parts. That's just where I assume the conversation went.

"If anything happens to Jason or Xavier, we'd like to have Steve be the guy to come up and get those at-bats," Huntington said. "He could probably be a serviceable player for us right now. But we don't want him to be a good major-league player. We want him to be a great major-league player. Honestly, is anyone buying this? Because I'm trying really hard to justify this here. The boss says cutting Nady is a waste of money, so I'm stuck trying to trade him. Dave Littlefield really gave up Oliver Perez for this guy?"


"[Bullington]'s a true professional," Huntington said. "We've talked to him about becoming more consistent. We see flashes of a fastball that's crisper. We see flashes of a curveball that's sharper. We want to see if there's a little bit more there. If there is, he becomes a very good big-league pitcher. Of course, there probably isn't any more there given the fact that he's going back to AAA for round three. Damn, BJ Upton would look sexy in black and gold."

Maybe that's just what I hope he means.

Podcast tonight

If anyone is busy not getting drunk for St. Patty's Day or rejoicing that How I Met Your Mother is returning to ring in the end of the writer's strike, I'll be making a guest appearance to talk about the NL Central on the Treehouse Fort podcast tonight at 7:30 and you should be able to listen live at this link show's over now, but the archive is still at that link).

Pearce and others go down

This has been hashed and rehashed here, so I'm not going to drag it out, but Steve Pearce and a bunch of other people that I care less about were all sent to minor-league camp today. In order of my general preference, here's how I would've liked to see the Pearce situation play itself out:

1. Pearce stays with the Pirates, mashes, replaces Thor in the WHYGAVS mythology.
   
2. Pearce goes to the minors, mashes, and forces Huntington's hand on Xavier Nady (unless he hits 10 homers in April, we're not getting anything for him).
   
3. Pearce sits on the bench in Pittsburgh and pinch hits, never getting a chance to be a regular until he's 27 or so.
   

That being said, if Pearce doesn't get around 300 plate appearances in Pittsburgh this year, I'm still going to be fairly upset.

Here's how it would happen: May 2008

Quick debriefing: I'm honestly kind of bored by the way I kicked off my last season preview, what with the mostly already answered questions and the like. I'll still hit the big questions before the season starts, but I really feel like doing something different. I honestly think the Pirates have no chance to contend or even finish .500 this year, but the truth is that there must be some sequence of events, no matter how improbable, that can take place that would bring home an NL Central pennant for the Bucs in 2008. It's probably just because I've watched too much LOST lately, but I'm going to write a series of flash-forwards dealing with the one alternate dimension in a million in which the Pirates win the NL Central in 2008. Someone hit the gas on the infinite improbability drive ...

Remember, the Buccos finished April 13-14, 4 games behind the division leading Cubs.

May 1st- The Bucs end their six game slide by winning their first game in the Nationals' new park, 8-7. Jason Bay hits a grand slam in the top of the ninth to dig the Pirates out of a three run hole.
WHYGAVS: I'm not even sure I remember how to write a recap for a win. One of the absolute best feelings writing a blog like this is having faith in a player, only to see that faith rewarded and I think we can all agree that was one hell of a clutch home run by Jason Bay. I doubt this season is going to have a turning point for the Pirates, but if it were to have one, this win tonight would be it. Mired in a six game losing streak and facing a three run deficit, their best player stepped up and delivered the biggest hit of the year. It's nice to see, even if the Pirates never see .500 again this year.


May 7th- Tom Gorzelanny shuts out the Giants with a brilliant 3-hitter. The Bucs ding Barry Zito for 9 runs in four innings, running their record to 17-15.
WHYGAVS: It may not be the same as playing the Giants with Barroids around, but it sure is nice to know that someone in baseball is worse off than we are. A lot worse off, actually.

May 12th- The Pirates sweep the Braves on another strong effort by Gorzo, pulling out a 2-1 win and going to 21-15, just a game behind the Cubs.
WHYGAVS: Umm, is it just me or is this team actually playing good baseball? A home sweep over the Braves is a huge, huge accomplishment. Did anyone actually think the Bucs would be
6 games north of .500 at any point this year, much less mid-May?

May 18th- The Cubs beat the Pirates 10-5 to win the series at Wrigley after the Pirates opened things up with a 5-4 win on the previous Friday. The Bucs go 2-4 on their road trip to St. Louis and Chicago.
WHYGAVS: If today's loss tells us anything, it's that the Pirates just aren't on the same level as the Cubs right now. They strong-armed us with an awesome offense lead today by Aramis, D-Lee, and Fukudome's 6 hits. This Pirate team may end up being better than we expected, but we just can't keep up with that kind of firepower.

May 22nd- The Pirates' slide continues as a 6-4 loss to the Brewers brings their third straight series loss and drops the Bucs to 24-22 and into third place in the division behind the Cubs and Brewers.
WHYGAVS: Don't you wish we had a guy like Prince Fielder? He hit his 18th bomb today and certainly looks to be on pace for his second straight 50 homer year at the age of 24. Damn, that's only a year older than me. Why can't the Pirates have a power hitter like him, ever?

May 25th- Adam LaRoche and Ryan Doumit both hit homers (their 13th and 8th, respectively) to lead the Pirates to a 5-1 win over the Cubs which is spearheaded by Matt Morris's 7 strong innings and gives the Pirates a series win over the Cubbies, pulling them to within 3 games of first.
WHYGAVS: It's hard to argue with everything that's happened on the Pirates to this point in the year. LaRoche and Bay have both avoided awful starts and have been legitimate 3-4 hitters right now. The pitching staff has been mostly downright good and even Matt Morris has been solid. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I feel like this 26-23 start might actually be sustainable. My hopes aren't incredibly high, but it's not as far out of the question as I thought it would be when this season started.

May 31st- The Bucs close May with a 15-2 win over the Cardinals, lead by Jason Bay's 16th and 17th homers, closing out his annual May hotstreak with a .332/.411/.606 line and 8 homers on the month. During the game, Albert Pujols blows his elbow out trying to turn a 3-6-3 double play and is lost for the year. The Pirates move to 30-24 and to within a game of the Cubs.
WHYGAVS: If you're keeping track at home, you can officially cross the Cardinals off the list as contenders in the NL Central this year. They were hanging around .500, but they're never going to be able to keep up with the contenders without Pujols. Oddly enough, "the contenders" now includes the Pirates. I'm as baffled by all of this as you guys are, I promise.

Snell gets his extension

Good news out of Bradenton today, the PG is reporting that the Pirates have locked Ian Snell in to a long-term deal that they've been discussing since the beginning of spring. The details are a little sketchy, but it seems like a solid contract to me. Starting this year, he's getting $8 million over the next three seasons with the Pirates holding options for 2011 and 2012, which clock around $8 million per year. This strikes me as pretty much the exact kind of deal that the Pirates should be giving to Snell, so I've gotta say I'm impressed with Huntington for nailing this down and of course, happy for Snell who's certainly one of my favorite Pirates.

AHHHHHHHH!!!!

At first glance, Ian Snell and Phil Dumatrait seem to have nothing in common.

Except they are teammates and somehow friends.

"It just kind of happened," Dumatrait said. "He's just one of those guys you get along with, you know."

Snell, about to begin his third full season in the rotation, is from Delaware. Dumatrait, who hopes to begin his first season with the Pirates, is from California.

Snell is a right-handed pitcher, Dumatrait is a left-hander.

I could give you a million guesses as to who wrote that as a lead in to an article today, but you'd only need one. I mean, is it seriously surprising that players from different backgrounds are friends in an international sport like baseball? Did anyone else get all shocked an offended when they read the first paragraph/sentence thingy, simply assuming that Meyer was referring to the fact that Snell is black and Dumatrait is white? Does anyone else kind of feel like that was implied by the introduction, anyways? Has Paul Meyer just watched one too many buddy cop movies? I am full of questions today.

Sad

Honestly, like 90% of Pirate news today has been Billy Crystal related. Sad, really. Did anything else happen yesterday?

Maholm strikes out Crystal

I don't have a lot of time to post tonight, but I had to note that not only did Paul Maholm pitch very well today, he did manage to strike out Billy Crystal and preserve the last remaining shred of dignity for the Pittsburgh Pirates. I saw the at-bat on Sportscenter and it seemed to me like Maholm played it right, give Crystal a change to hit the ball, don't actually let him hit it, and smile after the game when he makes jokes about young you are.

Anyways, I know some people have a problem with teams' doing stuff like this in spring training, but I really don't. Some day, Paul Maholm is going to be able to tell his kids he struck out Billy Crystal, and then ensure them that it was a bigger deal when he did it after they have no idea who Billy Crystal is. But really, these games don't count for anything and stuff like this is what separates them from the regular season. Crystal taking a few futile hacks at Maholm's pitches is a lot more in the spirit of spring training than Shelley Duncan spiking a Ray, then getting speared by Johnny Gomes.

Bucs vs. Billy Crystal

Today, Billy Crystal takes the field against the Pirates. Paul Maholm gets the start, though I don't know if he'll be the one that gets to pitch to Crystal. Never has so much dignity been at stake in a Pirates' game.

And the other prospect

It's not fair to talk about Andrew McCutchen and not Neil Walker, especially because Walker suddenly seems fairly relevant to the Pirates in a more immediate sense. He's killing the ball this spring (5-for-16 with three of those five hits doubles) and seems to be improving his defense. Kevin Goldstein even thinks he might be ready for mid-season (BP subscription required).

Walker had a pretty strong year in AA last year, though he faltered at the end. I saw him play after his call-up to Indy and thought he looked pretty comfortable at third, despite all the errors he had been making. Accordingly, I'm not really surprised to hear he's adapting well to the position. After all of the strife that went into that position change for Walker, third base is actually a pretty serious position of need for the Buccos right now, as I don't see Jose Bautista ever advancing beyond a utility type player that's over-matched as an every day guy. I do think Walker should head to Indianapolis and see how he hits there, but this will be his first healthy season in a while and if he rakes there, I think Goldstein may be right. I doubt Huntington's put much stock in Bautista and I don't think he'd be afraid to give Walker a shot in Pittsburgh this year if he proves he's ready for it.

Prospects? Prospect.

You know what's a pretty bad sign? When I see the headline, "Prospects trying to make a name for themselves," and I have to stop and think who "prospects" might be referring to before I read the article. As it turns out, the article is about what you'd expect after the only off-day of the spring; it's fluff about every minor leaguer who's not on the casual fan's radar. I'm not going to talk about them, because they make me sad. Instead, I'm going to spend some time talking about our prospect. You know the one. McCutchen.

Honestly, I'm mildly terrified that putting McCutchen in AAA this year is going to ruin him, or at least set him back a year. I know that I'm the same guy that wants Steve Pearce fast-tracked (or, semi-fast tracked since DL started him slowly, but you get the point) to the majors this year and maybe my thinking Cutch isn't ready for AAA is inconsistent with that, but let's call it a gut feeling based on the fact that really shouldn't have been in AA last year. He had a pretty good year with Hickory in 2006, hitting .291/.356/.446. Since he was only 19 that year and he showed some good plate patience for a player of that age in any full-season league, people were rightly very optimistic. Still, he didn't set the world on fire in low-level A-ball. He got a call-up to Altoona at the end of the summer because the Curve were in the playoff hunt and he killed the ball, but he didn't even have 100 plate appearances there. Between that and a hot spring in 2007 that actually had people clamoring for the 20-year old to start the season in Pittsburgh, Littlefield skipped him past Lynchburg for good and sent him to Altoona to start 2007. Things were pretty ugly there, except for his walk rate (which stayed about the same as it had been the year before) and his stolen bases (a Nate McLouth like 17/18). His OPS was only .710 in Altoona and while he did close his time there out with a hot streak, he got mostly destroyed by right-handed pitching (splits here). He was again promoted to help Indy with their playoff push, and he didn't fare terribly well their either.

Now, I understand that a prospect doesn't necessarily need to put monster numbers up at every or any spot along the way to become a good major leaguer. At the same time, I'd like some evidence that the guy knows what he's doing at a level before promoting him along the way because it's what the fans want (I am, of course, talking about Littlefield and not Huntington). Maybe I'm worried after doing some research into Corey Patterson's early career (and yes, I know Patterson fits a different player profile at this point in his career) for a FanHouse post, but if a guy is constantly playing way over his head, he's going to have a hard time catching up and he might not ever do it. McCutchen, being a high school pick, is on a bit of a different time scale than a guy like Pearce. I'd simply like to see him repeat his hot finish in AA over a month or two in AA to be sure he's ready for AAA before tossing him into things headfirst. The emphasis should be bringing him along right, not bringing him along fast.

Oh geez

Billy Crystal has signed a gimmicky one-day contract to play for the Yankees on Thursday. The Yankees are, of course, playing the Pirates that day. Believe me when I tell you that this can only end terribly for us. Perhaps we can counter by giving Michael Keaton a uniform. Of course, he could probably start at third for us, so maybe we should spare ourselves the embarrassment.

How much of a competition is there this spring?

It seems like everyone has their eyes on two position battles this spring: catcher and center field. The main fight is in center field between Nate McLouth and Nyjer Morgan, where one of the two of them will certainly end up as the starting center fielder for the Pirates in 2008. The catcher fight is secondary and kind of two-tiered. The first question is whether or not the Pirates think of Ryan Doumit as a catcher or a swiss army knife and accordingly, whether Raul Chavez or Michel Hernandez will make the roster in addition to Doumit. The second question is whether or not Doumit could actually start over Paulino.

The thing is, I'm not really sure why there's a position battle at either of these places. I mean, what can we learn about McLouth, Paulino, Doumit, or Morgan from spring training this year? Definitely not much. We know McLouth has some pop, the ability to get on base, and great baserunning skill, though he likely won't be a terribly productive starter over a full season. We know Morgan is fast as hell, which makes him look like a good fielder (several of his circus catches last year were because he took a bad route and fixed it on sheer speed alone), and may help him hit for a high average, but we also know he's not good for much else. Doumit can hit, but he's pretty bad behind the plate and a huge injury risk. Paulino is adequate in a world in which Ryan Doumit has spider-web hamstrings (which he does).

My point is that the distance between these players is a lot more philosophical than anything. There's nothing in spring training that can happen between these four players that will change the differences that exist between them. Either the Pirates want Juan Pierre batting leadoff, or they don't. Either they're willing to risk Doumit's health and put him behind the plate, or they're not. That's really all there is to it.

Cuts!

The first round of cuts not involving extraneous catchers for early throwing sessions or people that have angered The Neal with their poor conditioning. According to the PG, Danny Moskos goes and he's certainly not alone.

Also sent to minor league camp are right-handed pitchers Jimmy Barthmaier, Ronald Belisario, Oliva Astacio, Romulo Sanchez, Adam Bernero, Yoslan Herrera, Jesse Chavez and Luis Munoz, left-hander Dave Davidson, catcher Miguel Perez and infielder Jose Macias.

No surprises, or people that will be terribly missed, there. I suppose Chavez and Romulo! may have had an outside chance at making the pen, but it was a pretty longshot for both of them.

New Poll

This week's poll deals with Zach Duke's outlook for 2008. I am not optimistic, but I'm curious how optimistic you guys are. Talk it up in the comments.

Last week's results:
How will Byung-Hyun Kim pitch in 2008?

• OK- 66% (137 total votes)
• Failure- 16% (35 votes)
• Abject failure- 16% (34 votes)

"Abject failure" has filed papers for a recount, as 2% of the vote has been lost to the GoogleTubes.

Nady rumblings and more

Apparently, speculating about the Mets being interested in Nady was a step in the right direction as the Mets inquired about acquiring Weapon X within the past few days. The PG says there's no interest on the Pirates' part to get a deal done right now, but I'm willing to bet that changes if Pearce keeps wrecking the Grapefruit League.

Maholm and Morris both got beaten up pretty good today. When I do things like the preview for the Hardball Times book (which is now shipping, hint hint) or Red Hot Mama's podcast, I generally cite the rotation as the team's strong point. When you really think about it, that's a terrifying thing for this team's prospects.

If you were hoping to get tickets to the home opener or Yankees series ... uhhh ... you're already too late.

Hyzdu HQ takes a look back on Baseball America's 2005 lineup projection for 2008. Check it out.

You may or may not have heard about this big basketball game going on 'round my part of the country tonight. I'll be doing some coverage of it over at FanHouse, so if you're looking for a completely biased take on the game (sorry, Vlad, but it's not going to be biased in the direction you're looking for) you can look for that at some ungodly hour tonight. Or you can pretend like I never mentioned basketball on this blog. One or the other.

The Xavier Nady Watch

Steven Pearce is mauling this spring and you've gotta figure Neal Huntington is placing calls all around to try and find a home for Xavier Nady by March 31st. Moises Alou injured his groin this week and he's probably going to be out close to two months. Rotoworld thinks the Mets will look outside the organization to fill the hole in left (unsaid: because they stupidly traded Lastings Milledge away for peanuts). I think that sounds like a nice place for Xavier Nady. I mean, he won't bring Oliver Perez back in a trade or anything, but just opening up a spot for Pearce would be good enough for me. Actually, if Huntington really wants to earn points, he'll just trade away everyone Littlefield acquired. I know it's pretty much the whole team, but hey, something's gotta be done.

The Pirates will not stand for fatness

You probably saw that Josh Sharpless and Carlos Maldanado got cut from camp yesterday. If you thought seemed strange to see ONLY those two guys gone and no one else when those two seemed like they were going to have a shot at making the team, well, it was strange. Apparently Huntington was not pleased with the physical shape they were in when they got to camp:

The Pirates reassigned reliever Josh Sharpless and catcher Carlos Maldonado to minor-league camp, and did so with a purpose: Management clearly was irked with both for having failed to follow prescribed offseason conditioning programs.

"Those who have done everything they needed to do are still here," general manager Neal Huntington said. "Those who didn't have been weeded out."

Of course, I don't know how cutting Sharpless and Maldanado is really going to make a point, but good for the Pirates on this one.

I also thought it was interesting to see the Bucs are limiting ticket sales for the Yankees series in June. Think they're expecting some demand for those tickets? Luckily, my dad pulled some in his season ticket draft so I'm coming home a bit early that week to catch the Yanks before WHYGAVS Night (which is on June 27th, if you recall, and if you don't, that's why I'm reminding you).

Spring stuff

There was actually a lot of interesting things that happened in today's spring game. First up, Steve Pearce hit his third homer of the spring in the first inning today. He's only got 18 at-bats, which makes the three homers kind of impressive, though it's hard to tell how impressive because the wind is always a factor in these spring games. Still, it's gonna be awfully hard for Neal Huntington to keep him in AAA if he keeps up any pace resembling this one.

The other piece of note from the game today was Zach Duke's three scoreless innings. They came in innings 3-5, so it's hard to know who he faced at the plate, exactly, but three one-hit innings with two strikeouts would be a big deal against a Little League team after his first outing this spring. Since Phil Dumatrait and Jaret Wright are being mentioned as possible fifth starters if it isn't Duke, I hope Duke gets himself together.

This is from yesterday, but the Bucs are working on a long-term deal with Snell. That's genuinely good news that not even I can pick a hole in right now, though it's probably because Snell has definitely been my favorite Pirate since Craig Wilson's exit.

The Outback Steakhouse is gone from left field and it's being replaced with a generic sportsbar/restaurant. Actually, I think Outback being gone is old news, but I can't remember.

Also from yesterday, Sean Burnett is a reliever now. I really think the Bucs should try this approach with Bullington and JVB, though there's not really any indication whether they will or not in the article. I guess the switch might help Burnett, but I kind of doubt it. He just hasn't had anything on the ball since all of his surgeries.

Shocking: Frank Coonelly may be a snake

To this point in his tenure, the Pirate employee that Frank Coonelly most reminds me of (in a purely superficial manner) is Dave Littlefield. They're both brash, smooth talking guys that could sell you volcano insurance, if they so desired. Because of just about everyone's description of Coonelly as really, really freaking smart (I'm paraphrasing), I was willing to let that go in the hopes that he knew what he was doing and had a plan to turn the Pirates around. He's said all the right things and he's got a pretty intimate knowledge of how baseball works given his job as labor counsel. I'm now seriously worried, because Charlie has dug up this quote:

"We'll pay attention to the slot, but we'll take the best available player that we believe we have a chance to sign," Coonelly said. "If we think a player's value is over the slot, we'd certainly consider it."

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

That modifier, "that we believe we have a chance to sign," completely destroys any other part of that statement. Vlad has a great rundown of Coonelly's stance on the draft, then he goes on to ask Dejan about it, and Dejan more or less indicates that Coonelly was talking about agents doing what Scott Boras did to the Phillies in the JD Drew saga of the mid-90s. Coonelly indicates something similar in a chat at the dot-com.

Keeping in mind that this is a subject that we honestly have no way to judge until the draft itself, I'm split on what to make of these comments. During the Moskos/Wieters fiasco last summer, I indicated in a conversation with my dad that I felt that it was entirely possible that Scott Boras would levy a "No Pirates" stance on a pick like Wieters and let him play in an independent league for a year rather than subject his prospect to career death in the Pirates' minor league system. Obviously I have no evidence to back that speculation up, but if I were a top prospect and I was drafted by the Pirates, I'd be pretty freaking disappointed. It likely wouldn't have been an issue with Wieters since he couldn't afford to lose a year as a college player, but I don't think Rick Porcello would've signed with us for all the tea in China. The thing is, I don't think that would ever happen to us with Coonelly as CEO. He may have left his league post for this job with the Bucs, but you know he's got friends in powerful places and I don't think he's a guy many agents would want to anger.

I find myself wondering if we really learned anything about Coonelly from the statement in the Philly paper that set all this off. Given his history as league counsel, it's certainly been possible right from the start that this guy is here to help the Nutting family line their pockets even further. And all of his statements that the Bucs will take the best player possible in the draft in June hinge upon different people's definitions of who that player may be, which gives him a lot of wiggle room. At the same time, there is some evidence that Nutting wants to turn this ship around and most of everything else Coonelly has said has been right on the mark. This is the problem with trying to judge a front office in its early days; words far outnumber actions right now and until we have some actions to compare to these words, we're mostly grasping at straws.

Still kicking

Sorry about the sudden dearth of posts. I'm still here and paying attention, so don't you worry about that. Today we've got some new conclusions to jump (or not to jump) to.

• Zach Duke will never throw a pitch past anyone ever again.
  
• Jason Bay has completely forgotten how to catch flyballs and will never be good again.
• Andrew McCutchen's hat looks really funny

Personally, I'm jumping on the first one and while I'm mildly disturbed by the second one, I'm not jumping yet since Dejan defended him in today's Q&A. And that third one's not really a question; he's just wearing a funny looking cap.